Los Angeles Times February 17, 1991, Sunday, Home Edition POP MUSIC; THERE'S ART AND THEN THERE'S MONEY; BUT THE NATIONAL MOOD, COLORED BY EVENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF,IS LIKELY TO INFLUENCE VOTING AND LEAVE O'CONNOR OUT OF THE RUNNING By PAUL GREIN Even before Sinead O'Connor announced that she was withdrawing from this year's Grammy Awards, the political tide had turned against her. With war raging in the Persian Gulf, it became unlikely that a conservative organization such as the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences would give one of its top awards to an artist who had refused to allow the national anthem to be played before one of her concerts. And with O'Connor's widely publicized withdrawal from this year's show -- to protest what she sees as the music industry's materialistic values -- her chances of winning in any major categories became nil. The Irishwoman's only real chance of winning when the 33rd annual Grammy Awards are presented Wednesday night at Radio City Music Hall in New York is in the new alternative music category. By contrast, Bette Midler's "From a Distance" has gained in stature because of recent world events. The graceful ballad comments on issues of peace and war in a way that resonates with the war in the Gulf. And whatever Midler's views on the war may be, no one will have to worry about her turning her acceptance speech into a tirade against U.S. involvement. The first sign that the tide had turned against O'Connor came in January when her critically hailed "I Do Not Want What I Haven't Got" wasn't nominated for best album. On Wednesday, that award is expected to go to the latest album by Phil Collins, who, like Midler, is a well-liked industry veteran. Record of the year: A victory here would make Midler only the second act in Grammy history to take this prize twice in a row. Midler won last year with another philosophical ballad, "Wind Beneath My Wings." Roberta Flack won back-to-back citations in 1973 and 1974 with "The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face" and "Killing Me Softly With His Song." Phil Collins' "Another Day in Paradise," a sensitive ballad about the plight of the homeless, will also have support here, though voters will likely decide that the album award is enough recognition. Despite all the controversy, O'Connor will garner a lot of votes for her riveting version of Prince's "Nothing Compares 2 U," though not enough to win. M. C. Hammer's "U Can't Touch This," which updates Rick James, and Mariah Carey's "Vision of Love," which mimics Whitney Houston, are decided long shots. Album of the Year Though debut albums by Carey and Wilson Phillips are also in the running, this comes down to a three-way race between Collins, Hammer and Quincy Jones. Hammer's "Please Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em" was last year's best-selling album, which isn't supposed to matter in Grammy voting but is surely no disadvantage. Furthermore, many Grammy voters are parents who doubtless approve of Hammer's clean-cut image and anti-drug stance. Hammer's the kind of role model they want for their kids. But there's no getting around the R-word -- rap. Hammer specializes in a form of music that most Grammy voters don't like or even understand. And all the record sales in the world won't change that. Jones' "Back on the Block" has more of a sense of purpose than any of the other nominees. The album reflects on the past four decades of black music, from be-bop to hip-hop. And Grammy voters love Jones, who has been nominated 72 times, more than anyone else in history. But the album was only a modest hit and it yielded just one Top 30 hit -- a remake of a Jones oldie from the '70s. It will win in a few secondary categories, but probably not here. That leaves Collins' " . . . But Seriously." Collins specializes in the kind of well-crafted, mass-appeal pop that Grammy voters have long favored. The Englishman won the best album citation five years ago with his last solo release, "No Jacket Required." A victory on Wednesday would make him only the third artist -- following Frank Sinatra in the '60s and Stevie Wonder in the '70s -- to win this award with back-to-back album releases. Best New Artist As the only new artist to be nominated for both best record and best album, Mariah Carey has an edge over the trio Wilson Phillips, which failed to make the best record finals. Carey also was hotter during the voting period; Wilson Phillips peaked a little earlier in the year. Those advantages should help Carey overcome Wilson Phillips' enviable bloodlines: The members of the Southern California-based trio are daughters of founding members of the Beach Boys and the Mamas & the Papas. Also nominated: Lisa Stansfield, the Black Crowes and the Kentucky Headhunters. Here are likely winners in other key categories: Song of the year: Julie Gold's "From a Distance." This songwriter's award usually favors ballads that have the potential to become standards, as this song does. Added tip-off: The award has gone to the writer of the Grammy-winning best record in six of the last 10 years. Also nominated: "Another Day in Paradise," "Nothing Compares 2 U," "Vision of Love," "Hold On." Pop female vocal: Midler, who was a surprise winner in this category 10 years ago for "The Rose," is a heavy favorite to win again with "From a Distance." Also: Carey, O'Connor, Whitney Houston, Stansfield. Pop male vocal: Multi-nominee Collins ("Another Day in Paradise") is likely to beat last year's champ, Michael Bolton. Also: James Ingram, Billy Joel, Roy Orbison, Rod Stewart. Pop duo/group: Wilson Phillips ("Hold On") will likely make up for its loss in the new artist category by winning here, beating last year's winning team of Linda Ronstadt and Aaron Neville. Also: the Righteous Brothers, the B-52's, Bruce Hornsby & the Range, Heart. Rock female: Janet Jackson's "Black Cat" is likely to edge past Alannah Myles' "Black Velvet." Brother Michael won the rock male award seven years ago with "Beat It." Also: Tina Turner, Melissa Etheridge, Stevie Nicks. Rock male: Billy Idol came back from a serious motorcycle accident with the irresistible "Cradle of Love." A Grammy would cap the comeback. Also: Jon Bon Jovi, Joe Cocker, Neil Young, Eric Clapton. Rock duo/group: After 20 years, Aerosmith is likely to win its first Grammy for "Janie's Got a Gun," its critically admired song about child abuse. Also: INXS, the Rolling Stones, Midnight Oil, Red Hot Chili Peppers. Hard rock: Faith No More's "Epic," a groundbreaking mix of rap, punk and metal, is likely to squeeze past last year's winner, Living Colour, and entries by AC/DC, Motley Crue and Jane's Addiction. Metal: Even though they didn't have a new album last year, Metallica will likely take this award for the second year in a row. They'll win for "Stone Cold Crazy," a song from Elektra Records' anniversary album "Rubaiyat." Also: Judas Priest, Anthrax, Megadeth, Suicidal Tendencies. Alternative: The presenter should take a cue from the 1971 Oscars -- in which George C. Scott won despite having rejected his nomination -- and squeal, "Oh my God, it's Sinead O'Connor." Her "I Do Not Want What I Haven't Got" is likely to beat the Replacements' "All Shook Down." Also: Kate Bush, Laurie Anderson, World Party. R&B female: Janet Jackson ("Alright") is likely to finally turn the tables on Anita Baker, who beat her in their two previous showdowns in this category. Also: Patti LaBelle, Regina Belle, Pebbles. R&B male: Luther Vandross has been among the top male vocalists in R&B for 10 years, yet has never won a Grammy. Voters will likely make up for that slight by giving him the award this year for his Top 10 pop breakthrough "Here and Now." Also: Johnny Gill, Babyface, Tevin Campbell, Al B. Sure! R&B duo/group: Everyone will be rooting for Ray Charles to win his first Grammy in 15 years. Brother Ray will win for "I'll Be Good to You," his duet with Chaka Khan which was the biggest hit from Jones' "Back on the Block." Also: Was (Not Was), Al B. Sure!-James Ingram-El DeBarge-Barry White, En Vogue, After 7. R&B song: "U Can't Touch This," Hammer's rewrite of Rick James' sizzling 1981 hit "Super Freak," will be an easy winner. Also: "I'll Be Good to You," "Alright," "Here and Now," "My, My, My." Rap solo: M.C. Hammer's "Please Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em." A lock. Also: Vanilla Ice, Queen Latifah, Big Daddy Kane, Monie Love. Rap duo/group: Rap-wary voters can accomplish two things by voting for the title track from Jones' "Back on the Block," which features Jones, his son Quincy D. III and rappers Ice-T, Melle Mel, Big Daddy Kane and Kool Moe Dee. They can salute Jones and avoid having to dig out and actually listen to all the other nominated entries by Public Enemy, Digital Underground, the West Coast Rap All-Stars and DJ Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince. Country female: Kathy Mattea ("Where've You Been") has won in this category at the Country Music Assn. Awards the past two years. That's the tip-off that she'll nose out K.T. Oslin, who won Grammys in 1988 and 1989. Also: Reba McEntire, Mary-Chapin Carpenter, Carlene Carter. Country male: The path was cleared for Garth Brooks ("Friends in Low Places") when his chief rival, Clint Black, failed to be nominated in this category. Also: Vince Gill, Randy Travis, Dwight Yoakam, Doug Stone. Country duo/group: The Judds' "Love Can Build a Bridge" will win for both musical and sentimental reasons. By now all the voters have learned of Naomi Judd's forced retirement from concerts due to health reasons. Also: Kentucky Headhunters, Restless Heart, Shenandoah, Alabama. Country vocal collaboration: The Highwaymen -- Waylon Jennings, Willie Nelson, Kris Kristofferson and Johnny Cash -- are the Mt. Rushmore of country music and are likely to win for "Highwayman 2." Also: Randy Travis and George Jones, Travis and B.B. King, Keith Whitley and Lorrie Morgan, Chet Atkins and Mark Knopfler. Country song: It's a toss-up between two Garth Brooks hits. Because it was also nominated in the country male category, "Friends in Low Places" (written by DeWayne Blackwell and Earl Bud Lee) has the edge over "The Dance." Also: "Where've You Been," "Come Next Monday," "When I Call Your Name." Last month, Paul Grein, who writes the Chart Beat column for Billboard magazine, correctly predicted four of the five nominees for best album and three of the five finalists for best record.