UNLIKE Pas and Dap, new opposition outfit Keadilan is led almost entirely by political greenhorns.  In going into the polls, half of their strength probably comes from the name Anwar but is this enough to win the votes?

AFTER having to deal with essentially two opposition parties in general elections since the country’s independence in 1957, the ruling coalition now finds itself also facing an embryonic Keadilan, an entity born out of the controversy following the dismissal of Anwar Ibrahim from the government and Umno in September last year.

Despite widespread media speculation and statements from the opposition in the last two weeks, Anwar, the opposition front’s choice for the post of prime minister, confirmed that he was not contesting.  In a tape recording, Anwar maintained that his decision was based on a “precedent” in which the then Dap’s Wee Choo Keong was disqualified in the Bukit Bintang Parliamentary constituency after having won the ballot.

His constituency however will feature a contest between his wife Dr Wan Azizah Ismail and his childhood friend and former political secretary Datuk Ibrahim Saad who represents Barisan.  That Ibrahim consented to be nominated there is in itself courageous in view of the amount of flak which has been aimed at him since Anwar’s dismissal, above all questioning his loyalty to a friend as against his loyalty to the party.

Does Wan Azizah have what it takes to be an elected representative in Parliament?  Or does she have it at all to be, first and foremost, a politician?  That she has been riding entirely on her husband’s waves is undeniable.  That she is contesting in Permatang Pauh perhaps says it all.

Such is the extent of the inter-twining between everything Anwar and Keadilan that had oldest child Nurul Izzah qualified, she too would have been fielded in this polls, someone observed.

Then there is former Anwar aide Azmin Ali in the Hulu Kelang state constituency hoping to unseat another Anwar friend Datuk Fuad Hassan of the Barisan and  Anwar's  lawyer Zainur Zakaria taking on incumbent Barisan MP Datuk Shahrizat Jalil in Lembah Pantai.  Former Lord President Tun Salleh Abbas tried in 1995 on the now defunct Semangat 46 ticket and was soundly beaten.  He is now standing in Terengganu as a Pas man.

Word was out earlier in the week that where possible the opposition, specifically Keadilan, was going on a vendetta against Barisan candidates known to be previously close to Anwar.  What emerges from this may not be obvious to the casual political observer but its significance must not be under-estimated.  What it translates into is that Anwar and his politics is all about undivided, unwavering loyalty and support for the man, and for the man only, not the party.  A cultist element there somewhere?

The Anwar factor too is not lost on characters like Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh of the DAP, Datuk Fadzil Noor of Pas and Dr Syed Husin Ali on Parti Rakyat Malaysia.

Those familiar with the goings on in these parties say that despite the compliments heaped on Anwar in public by their senior leaders, the feelings of distrust of the man shadow the unity on the surface.  After all some of the Pas leaders have known Anwar since their Abim days and are thus familiar with his politics. The Pas leadership is said to be split right in the middle over the decision to link up with the Anwar camp.

Confirmation of a trend within the DAP is the decision to field Kit Siang’s daughter-in-law Betty Chew in Malacca now that her husband Guan Eng is not eligible to contest and to include the son of another party stalwart Karpal Singh.  Just like Chew, Jagdeep Singh is a political greenhorn and must surely be banking on his father’s reputation only.  Incidentally Jagdeep is another Anwar lawyer.

Karpal first issued a statement to confirm Chew’s candidacy only for him to inform the press after a committee meeting that this was not going to happen to avoid accusation that the party was into nepotism.  But when further confirmation was sought, Guan Eng told the press to refer to the original statement.  Who actually makes the final decision in the DAP, one wonders.

Whatever the DAP’s reasons or call it by another name, the position adopted by the party is nepotism pure and simple.  Isn’t nepotism one of the issues taken up by Anwar especially in the days leading to his dismissal and since then?

The Barisan may have its shortcomings but in this context one cannot recall any period from the time of the late Tunku Abdul Rahman’s leadership until today when any clan has been allowed to dominate, certainly not as a matter of course and not in one general election after the other.

Within the ruling coalition, about thirty per cent of the candidates are new faces, some of them with professional qualifications.  Some mentris besar and federal Cabinet members have been retained as candidates, contrary to earlier speculation, although not all will necessarily hold the same office later if they win.

In determining the names, Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamed made known that the most important criterion was the probability of success.

So while the country is by now familiar with Pas and DAP and has come to expect the ups and downs of their performances at the polls, it is on Keadilan that most eyes are transfixed.

Can the new kid on the block do enough to upset the political equation; will it win sufficient seats to unnerve the strategists in Barisan for the next four or five years until the next poll or will it take the route of Semangat 46 and return to the fold of Umno?  Or if it is trounced this time, will Keadilan have the resolve and resilient to stay on board and make another attempt, true to the words of its leaders who have been saying that “our target is not 1999 but 2004”.

Will the support shown in the streets on Kuala Lumpur by the reformasi kids and the sentiments voiced by the urban middle-class Malays in the cafes and the-tarik stalls translate into sufficient votes for Keadilan? Or if Barisan sends it into oblivion, can this party that thrives not on ideology but on the personality of one man continue to be on a high while Anwar spends time at the Sungai Buloh prison, a spiritual leader in absentia?  Possible but highly unlikely.